๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐ŸŽฏ DAILY2026-07-15

๐ŸŽฏ 2026-07-15 DAILY Marking

Claude CLI๊ฐ€ 24h ์‚ฐ์—… ์ด์Šˆ์—์„œ ์ž๋™ ์ถ”์ถœ ยท ๐Ÿ”ฅ 0 / ๐Ÿ“Œ 8 / ๐Ÿ’ก 0

๐Ÿ”ฅ Critical (0๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch (8๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-power-bottleneck power

ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ 3์‚ฌ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ ๊ทœ์ œยทESS ์ˆ˜์š” ํ™•๋Œ€ โ€” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ๋ง ๋ณด์™„ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ํ›„๋ณด

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ์†Œ๋น„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ์‚ฐ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ทœ์ œยท์„ธ์•ก๊ณต์ œ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๊ฐ€ ESS์—์„œ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ์ƒ๋Œ€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์„ ๋†’์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. AI ์ „๋ ฅ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์˜ ํ•ด๋ฒ•์ด ์†ก๋ฐฐ์ „๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ESS ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€๋กœ ์ด๋™ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ ๊ฒ€ํ•  ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 54/100 secular catalyst 6m
backlog
medium
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ESS ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ๋ฐœ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ง€์—ฐ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ์‚ฐ ์šฐํšŒ ๊ณต๊ธ‰์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋ฏธ์—„์ด ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ์ •์ฑ… ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ œ ์…€ ํŒ๊ฐ€ยท๊ฐ€๋™๋ฅ  ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋˜๋Š”์ง€์™€ ๊ณ ๊ฐ๋ณ„ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์•„์ง ํ™•์ธ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260715-watch-yaml-0
    name: ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ 3์‚ฌ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ ๊ทœ์ œยทESS ์ˆ˜์š” ํ™•๋Œ€ โ€” ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ๋ง ๋ณด์™„ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ํ›„๋ณด
    L0_trend: ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ์†Œ๋น„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ์‚ฐ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ทœ์ œยท์„ธ์•ก๊ณต์ œ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๊ฐ€ ESS์—์„œ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ์ƒ๋Œ€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์„ ๋†’์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. AI ์ „๋ ฅ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์˜ ํ•ด๋ฒ•์ด ์†ก๋ฐฐ์ „๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ESS ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€๋กœ ์ด๋™ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ ๊ฒ€ํ•  ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-15 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์„ผํ„ฐ ์ „๋ ฅ์†Œ๋น„ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์™€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ์‚ฐ ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ทœ์ œยท์„ธ์•ก๊ณต์ œ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๊ฐ€ ESS์—์„œ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ์ƒ๋Œ€ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ์„ ๋†’์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. AI ์ „๋ ฅ ๋ณ‘๋ชฉ์˜ ํ•ด๋ฒ•์ด ์†ก๋ฐฐ์ „๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ESS ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€๋กœ ์ด๋™ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ ๊ฒ€ํ•  ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch physical-ai-vlm robotics

HL๋งŒ๋„, ๋กœ๋ด‡ ์•ก์ถ”์—์ดํ„ฐ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ํ™œ๋™ ๋ณธ๊ฒฉํ™” โ€” ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ต์— ํ”ผ์ง€์ปฌ AI ์˜ต์…˜

ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งˆ์Šคํ„ฐ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์™„์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ํ™œ๋™ ๋ณธ๊ฒฉํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ œ์‹œ๋ผ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์˜ ๊ธฐ์กด ์‹ค์  ์œ„์— ๋กœ๋ด‡ ์•ก์ถ”์—์ดํ„ฐ ์˜ต์…˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋ถ™๋Š” ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์ด๋‹ค. ํœด๋จธ๋…ธ์ด๋“œ ์–‘์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์‹œ ๊ตฌ๋™๊ณ„ยท์ œ์–ด ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์˜ 2์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ํ›„๋ณด๋กœ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 55/100 secular catalyst 6m quality medium
backlog
low
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
0.0%
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=2] | ๋งˆ์Šคํ„ฐ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์ดํ›„ ๊ณ ๊ฐ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ™•์ธ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ ๋งˆ์ง„์ด 4.2% ์ „๋ง์„ ํ•˜ํšŒํ•˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ์ด์ „ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—ฌ์„œ ๋กœ๋ด‡ ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ์‹ค์ ์ด ์•„๋‹Œ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์˜ต์…˜์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260715-watch-yaml-1
    name: HL๋งŒ๋„, ๋กœ๋ด‡ ์•ก์ถ”์—์ดํ„ฐ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ํ™œ๋™ ๋ณธ๊ฒฉํ™” โ€” ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ต์— ํ”ผ์ง€์ปฌ AI ์˜ต์…˜
    L0_trend: ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งˆ์Šคํ„ฐ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์™„์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ํ™œ๋™ ๋ณธ๊ฒฉํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ œ์‹œ๋ผ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์˜ ๊ธฐ์กด ์‹ค์  ์œ„์— ๋กœ๋ด‡ ์•ก์ถ”์—์ดํ„ฐ ์˜ต์…˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋ถ™๋Š” ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์ด๋‹ค. ํœด๋จธ๋…ธ์ด๋“œ ์–‘์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์‹œ ๊ตฌ๋™๊ณ„ยท์ œ์–ด ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์˜ 2์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ํ›„๋ณด๋กœ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: HL๋งŒ๋„, code: '204320'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-15 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ๋งˆ์Šคํ„ฐ ๋ชจ๋ธ ์™„์„ฑ๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ํ™œ๋™ ๋ณธ๊ฒฉํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ œ์‹œ๋ผ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์˜ ๊ธฐ์กด ์‹ค์  ์œ„์— ๋กœ๋ด‡ ์•ก์ถ”์—์ดํ„ฐ ์˜ต์…˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ๋ถ™๋Š” ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์ด๋‹ค. ํœด๋จธ๋…ธ์ด๋“œ ์–‘์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€ ์‹œ ๊ตฌ๋™๊ณ„ยท์ œ์–ด ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์˜ 2์ฐจ ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ ํ›„๋ณด๋กœ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch materials

ํฌ์Šค์ฝ”ยทํ˜„๋Œ€์ œ์ฒ , ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ƒ‰์—ฐ๊ฐ•ํŒ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ๋งˆ์ง„ 0% ํ™•์ • โ€” ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์ฑ„์‚ฐ์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ 

๋ฏธ ์ƒ๋ฌด๋ถ€์˜ ์—ฐ๋ก€ ์žฌ์‹ฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ๋งˆ์ง„๊ณผ ํ–ฅํ›„ ํ˜„๊ธˆ์˜ˆ์น˜์œจ์ด 0%๋กœ ํ™•์ •๋๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญํ–ฅ ๋ƒ‰์—ฐ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์˜ ๋น„์šฉ ๋ถ€๋‹ด ์™„ํ™”๋Š” ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์—…ํ™ฉ ์ €์ ์—์„œ ๋งˆ์ง„ ์ •์ƒํ™”์˜ ์ง์ ‘์  ์ด์ต ์ด‰๋งค๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 62/100 cyclical catalyst 3m quality medium
backlog
low
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
-14.6%
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ˆ˜์š” ๋‘”ํ™”ยท์ฒ ๊ฐ• ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ํ•˜๋ฝ์ด ๊ด€์„ธ ์ ˆ๊ฐ ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๊ณผํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ’ˆ๋ชฉ์˜ ๋ฌด์—ญ๊ทœ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ•ํ™”๋˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ๊ด€์„ธ ์ •์ƒํ™”๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ ์ ˆ๊ฐ์ผ ๋ฟ ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์Šคํ”„๋ ˆ๋“œ์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ์„ ๋ณด์žฅํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260715-watch-yaml-2
    name: ํฌ์Šค์ฝ”ยทํ˜„๋Œ€์ œ์ฒ , ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ƒ‰์—ฐ๊ฐ•ํŒ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ๋งˆ์ง„ 0% ํ™•์ • โ€” ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์ฑ„์‚ฐ์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ 
    L0_trend: ๋ฏธ ์ƒ๋ฌด๋ถ€์˜ ์—ฐ๋ก€ ์žฌ์‹ฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ๋งˆ์ง„๊ณผ ํ–ฅํ›„ ํ˜„๊ธˆ์˜ˆ์น˜์œจ์ด 0%๋กœ ํ™•์ •๋๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญํ–ฅ ๋ƒ‰์—ฐ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์˜ ๋น„์šฉ ๋ถ€๋‹ด ์™„ํ™”๋Š” ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์—…ํ™ฉ ์ €์ ์—์„œ ๋งˆ์ง„ ์ •์ƒํ™”์˜ ์ง์ ‘์  ์ด์ต ์ด‰๋งค๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ํ˜„๋Œ€์ œ์ฒ , code: '004020'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-15 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ๋ฏธ ์ƒ๋ฌด๋ถ€์˜ ์—ฐ๋ก€ ์žฌ์‹ฌ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ ๋ฐ˜๋คํ•‘ ๋งˆ์ง„๊ณผ ํ–ฅํ›„ ํ˜„๊ธˆ์˜ˆ์น˜์œจ์ด 0%๋กœ ํ™•์ •๋๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญํ–ฅ ๋ƒ‰์—ฐ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์˜ ๋น„์šฉ ๋ถ€๋‹ด ์™„ํ™”๋Š” ์ฒ ๊ฐ• ์—…ํ™ฉ ์ €์ ์—์„œ ๋งˆ์ง„ ์ •์ƒํ™”์˜ ์ง์ ‘์  ์ด์ต ์ด‰๋งค๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

๊ธฐ์—… IT ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์˜ ์„œ๋ฒ„ยท์Šคํ† ๋ฆฌ์ง€ยท๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ „ํ™˜ โ€” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์„ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์ˆ˜์š” ํ™•์ธ

IBM์˜ ์‹ค์  ๋ถ€์ง„ ์›์ธ์ด ๊ณ ๊ฐ์˜ ์„œ๋ฒ„ยท์Šคํ† ๋ฆฌ์ง€ยท๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์šฐ์„  ๋ฐฐ๋ถ„์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„ ์„ค๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒยท๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ์„ ์•ž๋‘” ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์„ ํ™•๋ณด๋Š” ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ASP์™€ ์ถœํ•˜๋Ÿ‰ ๋™์‹œ ๊ฐœ์„  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจํ•œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 72/100 secular catalyst 1m quality medium
backlog
medium
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ๊ณ ๊ฐ์˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ฐ€ ์žฌ๊ณ ์ถ•์ ์— ๊ทธ์น˜๊ณ  ๋‹ค์Œ ๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์„œ๋ฒ„ยท๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ฃผ๋ฌธ์ด ๋‘”ํ™”๋˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ์ถ•์†Œ๊ฐ€ ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์—… IT ์ง€์ถœ ๋‘”ํ™”๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜์š”๋„ ํ›„ํ–‰ ๋‘”ํ™”ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260715-watch-yaml-3
    name: ๊ธฐ์—… IT ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์˜ ์„œ๋ฒ„ยท์Šคํ† ๋ฆฌ์ง€ยท๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ „ํ™˜ โ€” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์„ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์ˆ˜์š” ํ™•์ธ
    L0_trend: IBM์˜ ์‹ค์  ๋ถ€์ง„ ์›์ธ์ด ๊ณ ๊ฐ์˜ ์„œ๋ฒ„ยท์Šคํ† ๋ฆฌ์ง€ยท๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์šฐ์„  ๋ฐฐ๋ถ„์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„ ์„ค๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒยท๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ์„ ์•ž๋‘” ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์„ ํ™•๋ณด๋Š” ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ASP์™€ ์ถœํ•˜๋Ÿ‰ ๋™์‹œ ๊ฐœ์„  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจํ•œ๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-15 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      IBM์˜ ์‹ค์  ๋ถ€์ง„ ์›์ธ์ด ๊ณ ๊ฐ์˜ ์„œ๋ฒ„ยท์Šคํ† ๋ฆฌ์ง€ยท๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ตฌ๋งค ์šฐ์„  ๋ฐฐ๋ถ„์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„ ์„ค๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋๋‹ค. ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ธ์ƒยท๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ์„ ์•ž๋‘” ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์„ ํ™•๋ณด๋Š” ํ•œ๊ตญ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์—…์ฒด์˜ ASP์™€ ์ถœํ•˜๋Ÿ‰ ๋™์‹œ ๊ฐœ์„  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจํ•œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์žยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค LTA ํŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™” ๋Œ€์‘ โ€” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ๋ฐฉ ์žฌํ‰๊ฐ€

์–‘์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ LTA ํŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™” ๋Œ€์‘ ์กฐ์ง์„ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ณด์ƒ ํ˜‘์˜๋ฅผ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ์ด ๋‹จ์ˆœ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉยท๋ณด์ƒ ์กฐํ•ญ์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์กด HBMยทDRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ thesis์™€ ์ •ํ•ฉ์ ์ด๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 76/100 secular catalyst 1m quality high
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | 2Q26 ์‹ค์ ์—์„œ HBMยทDRAM ASP์™€ ๋งˆ์ง„์ด ๊ธฐ๋Œ€์— ๋ฏธ๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ LTA ๋ณด์ƒ ์กฐํ•ญ์ด ์ด์ต์œผ๋กœ ์ธ์‹๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: LTA ๊ด€๋ จ ์„ธ๋ถ€ ์กฐ๊ฑด์€ ๋น„๊ณต๊ฐœ์ด๋ฉฐ, ๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ์Šน์ด ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ยท๊ณ ๊ฐ ์ง‘์ค‘ ๋ฆฌ์Šคํฌ๋ฅผ ์ƒ์‡„ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€๋Š” ์‹ค์  ํ™•์ธ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260715-watch-yaml-4
    name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์žยทSKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค LTA ํŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™” ๋Œ€์‘ โ€” ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ƒ๋ฐฉ ์žฌํ‰๊ฐ€
    L0_trend: ์–‘์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ LTA ํŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™” ๋Œ€์‘ ์กฐ์ง์„ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ณด์ƒ ํ˜‘์˜๋ฅผ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ์ด ๋‹จ์ˆœ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉยท๋ณด์ƒ ์กฐํ•ญ์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์กด HBMยทDRAM 
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-15 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์–‘์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ LTA ํŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™” ๋Œ€์‘ ์กฐ์ง์„ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ณด์ƒ ํ˜‘์˜๋ฅผ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ AI ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ์ด ๋‹จ์ˆœ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉยท๋ณด์ƒ ์กฐํ•ญ์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ๊ฐœ์„ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋‹ค. ๊ธฐ์กด HBMยทDRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ thesis์™€ ์ •ํ•ฉ์ ์ด๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch mark-20260518-staged-0 defense

ํ˜„๋Œ€๋กœํ…œ, ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์žฅ๊ฐ‘์ฐจ 195๋Œ€ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ตœ์ข…ํ™” ์ถ”์ง„ โ€” K-๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๋‚จ๋ฏธ ํŒจํ‚ค์ง€ ํ™•๋Œ€

2.5์กฐ~3์กฐ์› ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์žฅ๊ฐ‘์ฐจ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ž ์ •๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด ์ตœ์ข…ํ™” ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋๋‹ค. KAIยทHDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—… ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์™€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ๋˜๋ฉด ๋‹จํ’ˆ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์„ ๋„˜์–ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ์œ„ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ํŒจํ‚ค์ง€ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์™€ ํ›„์† MRO ๋งค์ถœ ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง„๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 74/100 secular catalyst 6m quality medium
backlog
high
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
-12.9%
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=2] | ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์ •๊ถŒยท์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ ๋ณธ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด ์ง€์—ฐยท๋ฌด์‚ฐ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ธˆ์•ก๊ณผ ๋งˆ์ง„์ด ์ž ์ • ์กฐ๊ฑด๋ณด๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ์•„์ง€๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ํ˜„๋Œ€๋กœํ…œ์˜ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ชฉํ‘œ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜ํ–ฅ์€ ๊ธฐ์กด ์ด์ต ๊ธฐ๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฏธ ์ผ๋ถ€ ๋‚ฎ์•„์กŒ์Œ์„ ๋œปํ•˜๋ฏ€๋กœ, MOU๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์ž”๊ณ  ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ํ™•์ •ํ•˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ ๋œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260715-watch-yaml-5
    name: ํ˜„๋Œ€๋กœํ…œ, ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์žฅ๊ฐ‘์ฐจ 195๋Œ€ ๊ณ„์•ฝ ์ตœ์ข…ํ™” ์ถ”์ง„ โ€” K-๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๋‚จ๋ฏธ ํŒจํ‚ค์ง€ ํ™•๋Œ€
    L0_trend: 2.5์กฐ~3์กฐ์› ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์žฅ๊ฐ‘์ฐจ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ž ์ •๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด ์ตœ์ข…ํ™” ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋๋‹ค. KAIยทHDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—… ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์™€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ๋˜๋ฉด ๋‹จํ’ˆ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์„ ๋„˜์–ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ์œ„ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ํŒจํ‚ค์ง€ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์™€ ํ›„์† MRO ๋งค์ถœ ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง„๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ํ˜„๋Œ€๋กœํ…œ, code: '064350'}
        - {name: ํ•œ๊ตญํ•ญ๊ณต์šฐ์ฃผ, code: '047810'}
        - {name: HDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—…, code: '329180'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-15 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      2.5์กฐ~3์กฐ์› ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ํŽ˜๋ฃจ ์žฅ๊ฐ‘์ฐจ ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ž ์ •๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด ์ตœ์ข…ํ™” ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋๋‹ค. KAIยทHDํ˜„๋Œ€์ค‘๊ณต์—… ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ์™€ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ๋˜๋ฉด ๋‹จํ’ˆ ์ˆ˜์ถœ์„ ๋„˜์–ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ์œ„ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ํŒจํ‚ค์ง€ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์™€ ํ›„์† MRO ๋งค์ถœ ๊ฐ€์‹œ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’์•„์ง„๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-power-bottleneck transportation

๋Œ€ํ•œํ•ญ๊ณต, AI๋ฐœ ํ•ญ๊ณตํ™”๋ฌผ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ 2026๋…„ ์ด์ต ์ถ”์ •์น˜ ์ƒํ–ฅ

2Q26 ์˜์—…์ด์ต์ด ์ปจ์„ผ์„œ์Šค๋ฅผ ์ƒํšŒํ–ˆ๊ณ , ํ™”๋ฌผ ์šด์ž„ ์ƒ์Šน ๋ฐ ๋น„์šฉ ์ „๊ฐ€๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์˜์—…์ด์ต ์ „๋ง์ด ๊ธฐ์กด ๋Œ€๋น„ 20.4%, YoY 55.5% ์ƒํ–ฅ๋๋‹ค. AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์žฅ๋น„ยท์„œ๋ฒ„ ์šด์†ก ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ํ•ญ๊ณตํ™”๋ฌผ ์ด์ต ํ’€๋กœ ์ „์ด๋˜๋Š” ๋น„์ •ํ˜• ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 78/100 cyclical catalyst 1m quality medium
EPS YoY
+55.5%
์ปจ์„ผ revision
+20.4%
SUE streak
1๋ถ„๊ธฐ ์—ฐ์†
backlog
medium
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
+11.1%
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): ํ™”๋ฌผ ์šด์ž„์ด ๊ธ‰๋ฝํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์œ ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน๋ถ„์˜ ์šด์ž„ ์ „๊ฐ€์œจ์ด ํ•˜๋ฝํ•ด ํ•˜๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ ์˜์—…์ด์ต ์ถ”์ •์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žฌํ•˜ํ–ฅ๋˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ํ™”๋ฌผ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋Š” AI ์ˆ˜์š”๋ฟ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ง€์ •ํ•™ยท๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋„ ์ปค ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์„ฑ์žฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹จ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ต๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260715-watch-yaml-6
    name: ๋Œ€ํ•œํ•ญ๊ณต, AI๋ฐœ ํ•ญ๊ณตํ™”๋ฌผ ๊ฐ•์„ธ๋กœ 2026๋…„ ์ด์ต ์ถ”์ •์น˜ ์ƒํ–ฅ
    L0_trend: 2Q26 ์˜์—…์ด์ต์ด ์ปจ์„ผ์„œ์Šค๋ฅผ ์ƒํšŒํ–ˆ๊ณ , ํ™”๋ฌผ ์šด์ž„ ์ƒ์Šน ๋ฐ ๋น„์šฉ ์ „๊ฐ€๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์˜์—…์ด์ต ์ „๋ง์ด ๊ธฐ์กด ๋Œ€๋น„ 20.4%, YoY 55.5% ์ƒํ–ฅ๋๋‹ค. AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์žฅ๋น„ยท์„œ๋ฒ„ ์šด์†ก ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ํ•ญ๊ณตํ™”๋ฌผ ์ด์ต ํ’€๋กœ ์ „์ด๋˜๋Š” ๋น„์ •
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ๋Œ€ํ•œํ•ญ๊ณต, code: '003490'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-15 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      2Q26 ์˜์—…์ด์ต์ด ์ปจ์„ผ์„œ์Šค๋ฅผ ์ƒํšŒํ–ˆ๊ณ , ํ™”๋ฌผ ์šด์ž„ ์ƒ์Šน ๋ฐ ๋น„์šฉ ์ „๊ฐ€๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์˜์—…์ด์ต ์ „๋ง์ด ๊ธฐ์กด ๋Œ€๋น„ 20.4%, YoY 55.5% ์ƒํ–ฅ๋๋‹ค. AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ์žฅ๋น„ยท์„œ๋ฒ„ ์šด์†ก ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ํ•ญ๊ณตํ™”๋ฌผ ์ด์ต ํ’€๋กœ ์ „์ด๋˜๋Š” ๋น„์ •ํ˜• ์ˆ˜ํ˜œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

ํ”ผ์—์Šค์ผ€์ดํ™€๋”ฉ์Šค, ASE ์ค‘์‹ฌ ๋ฆฌํ”Œ๋กœ์šฐ ์žฅ๋น„ 300๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ โ€” HBMยทCoWoS ํ›„๊ณต์ • ํˆฌ์ž ์‹ค์  ์ „์ด ํ›„๋ณด

์ตœ๋Œ€ 6,000์–ต์›, ์ „๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์•ฝ 3๋ฐฐ์˜ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋ผ HBMยทCoWoS ํŒจํ‚ค์ง• ์ฆ์„ค์ด ์žฅ๋น„ ๋งค์ถœ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’๋‹ค. AI ์นฉ ๊ณ ์ง‘์ ํ™”์˜ 2.5D ํŒจํ‚ค์ง• ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์žฅ๋น„์‚ฌ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 84/100 secular catalyst 3m
backlog
high
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ASEํ–ฅ ๋ฐœ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ทจ์†Œยท์ด์—ฐ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์‹ค์ œ ๋งค์ถœ ์ธ์‹์ด ์ˆ˜์ฃผ ๊ทœ๋ชจ ๋Œ€๋น„ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋ฏธ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ๋‹จ์ผ ๊ณ ๊ฐยท์–ธ๋ก  ๋ณด๋„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ์—ฌ์„œ ๊ณต์‹œ์™€ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ํ™•์ธ ์ „์—๋Š” ํ™•์ • backlog๋กœ ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ ๋œ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260715-watch-yaml-7
    name: ํ”ผ์—์Šค์ผ€์ดํ™€๋”ฉ์Šค, ASE ์ค‘์‹ฌ ๋ฆฌํ”Œ๋กœ์šฐ ์žฅ๋น„ 300๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ โ€” HBMยทCoWoS ํ›„๊ณต์ • ํˆฌ์ž ์‹ค์  ์ „์ด ํ›„๋ณด
    L0_trend: ์ตœ๋Œ€ 6,000์–ต์›, ์ „๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์•ฝ 3๋ฐฐ์˜ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋ผ HBMยทCoWoS ํŒจํ‚ค์ง• ์ฆ์„ค์ด ์žฅ๋น„ ๋งค์ถœ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’๋‹ค. AI ์นฉ ๊ณ ์ง‘์ ํ™”์˜ 2.5D ํŒจํ‚ค์ง• ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์žฅ๋น„์‚ฌ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋‹ค.
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ํ”ผ์—์Šค์ผ€์ดํ™€๋”ฉ์Šค, code: '031980'}
        - {name: ํ”ผ์—์Šค์ผ€์ด, code: '319660'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-15 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ์ตœ๋Œ€ 6,000์–ต์›, ์ „๋…„ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์•ฝ 3๋ฐฐ์˜ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์ œ์‹œ๋ผ HBMยทCoWoS ํŒจํ‚ค์ง• ์ฆ์„ค์ด ์žฅ๋น„ ๋งค์ถœ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๋†’๋‹ค. AI ์นฉ ๊ณ ์ง‘์ ํ™”์˜ 2.5D ํŒจํ‚ค์ง• ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๊ตญ ์žฅ๋น„์‚ฌ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋‹ค.