๐Ÿ“Š raki research
๐ŸŽฏ DAILY2026-07-19

๐ŸŽฏ 2026-07-19 DAILY Marking

Claude CLI๊ฐ€ 24h ์‚ฐ์—… ์ด์Šˆ์—์„œ ์ž๋™ ์ถ”์ถœ ยท ๐Ÿ”ฅ 0 / ๐Ÿ“Œ 2 / ๐Ÿ’ก 0

๐Ÿ”ฅ Critical (0๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch (2๊ฑด)

๐Ÿ“Œ Watch ai-substrate semiconductor

๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ ํ›„ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ ์กฐ๊ฑด ์ ๊ฒ€ โ€” AI ์ˆ˜์š”ยทDRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ์€ ์œ ์ง€๋˜๋‚˜ ๊ณ ๋งˆ์ง„ ์ง€์†์„ฑ ๊ฒ€์ฆ

AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž์™€ DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ์€ SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž์˜ ์ด์ต ์ถ”์ •์น˜ ์ง€์ง€ ์š”์ธ์ด๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๋Š” ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ชฉํ‘œ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๋ณธ๋ฌธ์€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์˜ 70~80% ์˜์—…์ด์ต๋ฅ  ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‹œ์žฅ ์šฐ๋ ค๋ฅผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: AI CapEx ๋‘”ํ™”๋‚˜ DRAM ASP ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ  ํ•˜๋ฝ์ด ํ™•์ธ๋˜๋ฉด ์‚ฌ์ดํด ํ”ผํฌ ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์šฐ์„ธํ•ด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 78/100 cyclical catalyst 1m quality high
์ปจ์„ผ revision
+18.0%
backlog
moderate
๋ชฉํ‘œ๊ฐ€ ฮ”
+129.4%
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): 3Q26 DRAM ASP ๋ฐ HBM ์ถœํ•˜ ๊ฐ€์ด๋˜์Šค๊ฐ€ ํ•˜ํ–ฅ๋˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์˜์—…์ด์ต๋ฅ ์ด ์—ฐ์† ํ•˜๋ฝํ•˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260719-watch-yaml-0
    name: ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๋ฝ ํ›„ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑ ์กฐ๊ฑด ์ ๊ฒ€ โ€” AI ์ˆ˜์š”ยทDRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ถ€์กฑ์€ ์œ ์ง€๋˜๋‚˜ ๊ณ ๋งˆ์ง„ ์ง€์†์„ฑ ๊ฒ€์ฆ
    L0_trend: AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž์™€ DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ์€ SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž์˜ ์ด์ต ์ถ”์ •์น˜ ์ง€์ง€ ์š”์ธ์ด๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๋Š” ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ชฉํ‘œ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๋ณธ๋ฌธ์€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์˜ 70~80% ์˜์—…์ด์ต๋ฅ  ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‹œ
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค, code: '000660'}
        - {name: ์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž, code: '005930'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-19 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      AI ์ธํ”„๋ผ ํˆฌ์ž์™€ DRAM ๊ณต๊ธ‰ ์ œ์•ฝ์€ SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šคยท์‚ผ์„ฑ์ „์ž์˜ ์ด์ต ์ถ”์ •์น˜ ์ง€์ง€ ์š”์ธ์ด๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ SKํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๋Š” ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ชฉํ‘œ์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์ƒํ–ฅ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๋ณธ๋ฌธ์€ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์˜ 70~80% ์˜์—…์ด์ต๋ฅ  ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์‹œ์žฅ ์šฐ๋ ค๋ฅผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ œ์‹œํ•œ๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: AI CapEx ๋‘”ํ™”๋‚˜ DRAM ASP ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ  ํ•˜๋ฝ์ด ํ™•์ธ๋˜๋ฉด ์‚ฌ์ดํด ํ”ผํฌ ๋…ผ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์šฐ์„ธํ•ด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ
๐Ÿ“Œ Watch mark-20260518-staged-0 defense

ํ•œํ™” ํ•„๋ฆฌ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ MRIV ์ˆ˜์ฃผ โ€” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ณจ๋“ ๋”ยทํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ง„์ž…์˜ ์‹ค์  ์ „์ด ๋ ˆ์ด๋”

ํ•œํ™” ํ•„๋ฆฌ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐ€ MDA ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ์‹œํ—˜ ๊ณ„์ธก์„  ๊ฑด์กฐ ์‚ฌ์—…์— ์„ ์ •๋ผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐยทํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ๋ ˆํผ๋Ÿฐ์Šค๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฑด์กฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ œ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ํ•œํ™”์˜ ๋ถ๋ฏธ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ์ง„์ž…์ด ์ค‘์žฅ๊ธฐ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ๋‹จ์ผ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ์‹ค์  ๊ธฐ์—ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ œํ•œ์ ์ด๋ฉฐ, ํ›„์† ๋ฏธ ํ•ด๊ตฐยทMDA ๋ฐœ์ฃผ์™€ ์ฆ์„ค CAPEX์˜ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ํ™•์ธ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค.
๐Ÿ“Š 76/100 secular catalyst 6m quality moderate
backlog
moderate
โš ๏ธ Falsifier (thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „ ์กฐ๊ฑด): [secular-evidence=1] | ํ–ฅํ›„ 6~12๊ฐœ์›” ๋‚ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„ ยท๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ํ›„์† ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์—†๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ํ•„๋ฆฌ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ ์ฆ์„ค ํˆฌ์ž ๋Œ€๋น„ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ์•…ํ™”๊ฐ€ ํ™•์ธ๋˜๋ฉด thesis ๋ฐ˜์ „
๐Ÿ“‹ chain yaml snippet (vault์— ์ถ”๊ฐ€)
  - chain_id: mark-20260719-watch-yaml-1
    name: ํ•œํ™” ํ•„๋ฆฌ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ MRIV ์ˆ˜์ฃผ โ€” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ณจ๋“ ๋”ยทํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ง„์ž…์˜ ์‹ค์  ์ „์ด ๋ ˆ์ด๋”
    L0_trend: ํ•œํ™” ํ•„๋ฆฌ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐ€ MDA ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ์‹œํ—˜ ๊ณ„์ธก์„  ๊ฑด์กฐ ์‚ฌ์—…์— ์„ ์ •๋ผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐยทํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ๋ ˆํผ๋Ÿฐ์Šค๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฑด์กฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ œ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ํ•œํ™”์˜ ๋ถ๋ฏธ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ์ง„์ž…์ด ์ค‘์žฅ๊ธฐ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€
    L1_industry: TODO
    L2_bottleneck:
      - TODO
    L3_primary:
      KR:
        - {name: ํ•œํ™”, code: '000880'}
      Global: []
    L4_picks_shovels:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    L5_ecosystem:
      KR: []
      Global: []
    horizon: 1-3y
    confidence: low
    related_chains: []
    sources:
      - "2026-07-19 Claude marking (watch)"
    notes: |
      ํ•œํ™” ํ•„๋ฆฌ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐ€ MDA ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ์‹œํ—˜ ๊ณ„์ธก์„  ๊ฑด์กฐ ์‚ฌ์—…์— ์„ ์ •๋ผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐยทํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ๋ ˆํผ๋Ÿฐ์Šค๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ณดํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์กฐ์„ ์†Œ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ๊ฑด์กฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ œ ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ํ•œํ™”์˜ ๋ถ๋ฏธ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ์ง„์ž…์ด ์ค‘์žฅ๊ธฐ ์ด์ต ๋ชจ๋ฉ˜ํ…€์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ด๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. โš”๏ธ ์˜๋„์  ๋„์ „: ๋‹จ์ผ ํŠน์ˆ˜์„  ์ˆ˜์ฃผ๋งŒ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ ์‹ค์  ๊ธฐ์—ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ œํ•œ์ ์ด๋ฉฐ, ํ›„์† ๋ฏธ ํ•ด๊ตฐยทMDA ๋ฐœ์ฃผ์™€ ์ฆ์„ค CAPEX์˜